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Research and Markets Adds Report: 3Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, - 2013Oct 10, 2009 (Close-Up Media via COMTEX) -- Research and Markets has announced the addition of IE Market Research's new report "3Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, - 2013" to its offerings. In a release, Research and Markets noted that report highlights include: Total wireless subscribers in France to reach 65.9 million in 2013 with Orange taking 44.1 percent subscriber market share The Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for France's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom), SFR (Vodafone Group), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates. The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80 percent of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. Executive Summary: Subscriber growth is slowing down in France +4.2 percent industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009 ARPU level is declining in France - -0.4 percent operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009 Minutes of Use per Subscriber stabilizing at about 250 minutes per month +1.6 percent industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 1Q.2009 Stong EBITDA growth at Bouygues Telecom continues Industry average EBITDA growth was +2.1 percent in 1Q.2009 So what is IEMR's Forecast? Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to reach 65.9 million in 2013: - We forecast that total mobile subscribers in France will increase from 57.4 million in 2008 to 65.9 million in 2013. - Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 25.2 million in 2008 to 29.1 million in 2013. - Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be 22.3 million and 10.9 million respectively in 2013. Orange's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years: - Our model predicts that Orange's subscriber market share will increase from 43.9 percent in 2008 to 44.1 percent in 2013. On the other hand, SFR will see its subscriber market share decline from 34.2 percent in 2008 to 33.9 percent in 2013. - We expect that Bouygues Telecom's share of subscribers will remain stable over the next several years at approximately 16.6 percent. ARPU levels will stabilize in France's mobile operator space from 2009 to 2013: - Although ARPU levels continue to decline in many wireless markets around the world, we expect that ARPUs in France will be stable over the next several years. - Our model forecasts that Orange's monthly ARPU will increase slightly from euro33.19 in 2008 to euro34.04 in 2013 while monthly ARPU at SFR (Vodafone) declines from euro36.04 in 2008 to euro33.89 in 2013. - Bouygues Telecom's ARPU level continues to be higher than the other operators' ARPU levels. Bouygues Telecom's monthly ARPU will be approximately euro41.88 from 2009 to 2013. EBITDA margins will decline at Orange and SFR over the next five years: - We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 36.1 percent in 2008 to 32.9 percent in 2013. - Our model predicts that Orange's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.3 percent to 33.1 percent and SFR's (Vodafone) margin will fall from 38.9 percent to 33.6 percent over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. - On the other hand, we forecast that Bouygues Telecom's EBITDA margin will improve from 28.5 percent in 2008 to 31.2 percent in 2013. Companies Mentioned: - Orange (France Telecom) - SFR (Vodafone Group) - Bouygues Telecom - Orange's MVNOs - SFR's MVNOs Report information: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/f74006/3q09_france_mobile ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) |